For example, India has committed to hitting net-zero emissions by 2070 and has established milestones for progress along the way. The Glasgow summit - the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) - has already produced several important new pledges at national, corporate and global levels. And because oil demand is still lower than before the pandemic, owing to reduced use of road and air transportation, scientists expect emissions to increase as more countries lift pandemic restrictions and economies recover during the next year. вЂњWhat weвЂ™ve seen is that the demand thatвЂ™s bouncing back now has been met largely by fossil fuels,вЂќ says Steven Davis, an Earth systems scientist at the University of California, Irvine, and a member of Carbon Monitor. Most scientists expected emissions to rebound to some extent, but questions remained, including by how much and at what rate they would recover, and whether governments would ramp up investments in green energy as they sought to stimulate struggling economies. A second consortium, Carbon Monitor, which formed in 2020 to track daily carbon emissions around the globe, estimated a slightly larger drop. вЂњIt is too early to judge if the trend in land-use emissions is robust,вЂќ Pongratz says.Д¬arbon emissions from fossil fuels fell by 5.4% in 2020, as pandemic restrictions shut down restaurants and factories, grounded planes and closed borders, the Global Carbon Project estimates. But taking land-use trends into consideration comes with fairly high uncertainty, warns Julia Pongratz, a geographer at the University of Munich, Germany, who worked on the report. Although fossil-fuel emissions have been rising, the consortium estimates that cumulative carbon emissions have been relatively level during the past decade, after accounting for a gradual decline in emissions from land-use change. The report also provides new estimates of emissions released from land-use change, for instance, when a forest is cut down to make way for a pasture, or when a pasture is allowed to regrow forest. вЂњIвЂ™m expecting that it will really hit home with the negotiators and make it very obvious that action is needed.вЂќ вЂњThis is a reality check,вЂќ says Corinne Le QuГ©rГ©, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK, and a member of the Global Carbon Project, which presented the report this week at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, UK, where nations are debating the pledges they will make to curb greenhouse-gas emissions.

The rapid rebound, driven in part by the increasing demand for coal in China and India, suggests that emissions will begin to rise anew next year without substantial government efforts to bend the curve, the researchers warn.

ThatвЂ™s a faster recovery than many scientists expected. It predicts that carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will rise to 36.4 billion tonnes - an increase of 4.9% - in 2021 compared with last year (see вЂPandemic reboundвЂ™). The abrupt decline in global carbon dioxide emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by government-mandated lockdowns, will be all but erased by the end of this year, a consortium of scientists reports this week. China is a large consumer of coal, which is used to run power stations such as this one in Shanghai.

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